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Predictive Ecology - PRECOL

Predictive Ecology - PRECOL


The Predictive Ecology research group is devoted to understanding and predicting the complex, dynamic relations between the main drivers of global change and their effects on biodiversity. We seek to develop integrative understanding and effective prediction of ecosystem and landscape composition, structure and functioning, exploring the effects of spatial patterns on ecological processes, and vice-versa. We especially focus on the many roles played by biodiversity and vegetation processes in ecosystem and landscape dynamics.


In our research, we emphasize the development of models to explore the spatial and temporal dimensions of prediction in Ecology. In particular, we aim to model the state and dynamics of Anthropocene landscapes and to predict the interacting effects of climate change, land use change, wildfires and biological invasions on biodiversity and ecosystems. Our focal spatial scales range from local to regional, often following a multi-scale approach and with an emphasis on the landscape and eco-region levels.


From a more applied perspective, our research explores the added-value of predictive models and socio-ecological thinking in tackling real-world socio-environmental challenges. These applications range from the conservation and management of species, habitats and protected areas under global change, to landscape management for supply of multiple ecosystem services. The group is also engaged in the implementation and evaluation of relevant policy and governance instruments. In this regard we emphasize the development of effective monitoring systems combining predictive modelling and remote sensing technologies with in-situ assessment of biodiversity and ecological variables.


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